Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
